Harris Surges in Black Voter Support, Faces Tight Race with Trump

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. Credit | Getty images

United States: Bernie Sanders, the Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is significantly more popular among black Americans than Joe Biden himself was during the year; Trump, on the other hand, is slightly more popular among whites now than several months ago, said the Reuters/Ipsos.

The analysis of more than 10,000 responses from seven nationwide Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted since May also shows that there are several opportunities and threats for Harris, who became the U. S. vice-president and took over Biden’s campaign for president after the latter suspended his bid for re-election on July 21.

Harris would be the first Black woman president and also the first Asian American were she to triumph against Trump in the November 5 election.

Polling Trends and Voter Dynamics

As for the vice presidential candidate, 70 percent of Black voters polled in July said they would vote Harris over Trump, as against 59 per cent who opted for Biden in May and June polls. Black support for Trump also remained constant and slightly increased from 9 percent in May and June to 12 percent in July.

On the other hand, Trump is experiencing a rise in white voters’ support. Approximately 50% selected Trump in polls conducted in July, compared to 46% in polls conducted in May and June. Again, Harris had the backing of 38% of white voters in July, which was against the 36% support that he garnered in May and June.

Thus, the race remains a dead heat. Harris and Trump got 43% support in a combined average of the polls conducted last month. Biden and Trump polled an equal average of 40% in the polls conducted in the past two months.

Impact of Biden’s Withdrawal

The examination focused on the poll responses collected in July with a hypothetical Harris-Trump matchup and included responses before Biden, 81, suspended his campaign. All responses on Harris, however, were collected after Biden’s debate against, Trump on June 27 where the president’s lackluster performance prompted Democrats to demand that he drop out of the race.

White voters represent the largest racial group, with a voter share of 72% in the 2020 election based on statistics from the Pew Research Center; however, the share of the white voter population is rapidly declining decade by decade.

These voters included only 11% of the black populace during the election year. However, they comprise a significant part of the Democratic Party electorate and could be more influential in the current election year.

The black vote in Georgia saw Biden defeating Trump in the 2020 presidential vote. However, an increase in the price of goods and services and what they consider insufficient progress on race relations deputies has led to disillusion in some quarters.

Key Factors and Campaign Strategies

According to Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster focusing on African American voters’ mobilization, Harris has to draw more than 90 percent African American votes to counterbalance her lack of votes in white people, particularly white men and seniors. According to an analysis of exit polls conducted by the Pew Research Center, Biden captured 92% of the black votes in 2020, and 55% of white votes went to Trump.

“She’s going to have to consolidate her base of Black voters, young voters, and women of color,” Woodbury said.

Harris may be garnering more black voters who were previously swing voters. Data also showed that the proportion of Black registered voters who do not know, might vote for a third candidate, or might not vote reduced to 19% in July, down from 31% in May and June.

A Harris campaign official said the campaign anticipates the competition, which will result in a very close contest until November.

The Trump campaign has not answered a request for an interview.

Trump’s Response and Campaign Landscape

Trump has erroneously claimed that Harris had previously diminished her Black background. He managed to anger a convention of black journalists when he said that she only cared about her Indian roots in the past. Born to Indian and Jamaican parents, Harris has always considered herself to be both black and Asian, as reported by Reuters.

To identify trends among less numerous racial and ethnic minorities, Reuters relied on several polls at once. The poll margin of error ranged from 2% to 6%.